[1]王敬,王全凤.复杂系统风险分析的模拟方法[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2010,31(3):337-341.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.2010.03.0337]
　WANG Jing,WANG Quan-feng.Simulation Method for Risk Analysis in Complex System[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2010,31(3):337-341.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.2010.03.0337]
点击复制

复杂系统风险分析的模拟方法()
分享到：

《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1000-5013/CN:35-1079/N]

卷:
第31卷
期数:
2010年第3期
页码:
337-341
栏目:
出版日期:
2010-05-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Simulation Method for Risk Analysis in Complex System
文章编号:
1000-5013(2010)03-0337-05
作者:
王敬; 王全凤
中冶建筑研究总院有限公司; 华侨大学土木工程学院
Author(s):
WANG Jing1;  WANG Quan-feng2
1.Central Research Institute of Building and Construction CO.LTD.MCC Group, Beijing 100088, China; 2.College of Civil Engineering, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China
关键词:
知识约简;  粗糙集;  风险分析;  神经网络;  蒙特卡罗仿真
Keywords:
knowledge reduction;  rough set;  risk analysis;  artificial neural network;  Monte Carlo simulation
分类号:
N941.4
DOI:
10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.2010.03.0337
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
采用粗糙集理论进行知识约简并选择主要风险因素,应用神经网络理论方法寻找主要风险因素与总体风险之间的模糊关系模型.最后,采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟系统总体风险的概率分布,形成复杂系统风险分析的集成模拟方法.通过水利生态系统实例验证,证明该方法是合理且可行的.
Abstract:
The rough set theory(RST) is used as knowledge reduction and the selection of main risk factors.The fuzzy relationship model between main risk factors and overall risk is established by artificial neural network(ANN).The probability distribution of overall system risk is simulated by Monte Carlo method,an integrated simulation method is proposed for complex system risk analysis.The method is reasonable and feasible by verification of water conservancy ecosystem.

参考文献/References:

[1] MI Ju-sheng, WU Wei-zhi, ZHANG Wen-xiu. Approaches to knowledge reduction based on variable precision rough set model [J]. Information Sciences, 2004, (3/4):255-272.
[2] 张文修, 仇国芳. 基于粗糙集的不确定决策 [M]. 北京:清华大学出版社, 2005.
[3] YAHIA M E, MAHMOD R, SULAIMAN N. Rough neural expert systems [J]. Expert Systems With Applications, 2000(2):87-99.
[4] 张文修, 吴伟志, 梁吉业. 粗糙集理论与方法北京 [M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2001.
[5] 方千山. 粗糙集理论在模糊隶属函数辨识中的应用 [J]. 华侨大学学报(自然科学版), 2003(1):33-38.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5013.2003.01.006.
[6] 王敬. 水利生态系统可持续发展研究 [D]. 北京:华北电力大学(北京), 2007.
[7] 沈建明. 项目风险管理 [M]. 北京:机械工业出版社, 2003.
[8] 楼顺天, 施阳. 基于MATLAB的系统分析与设计:神经网络 [M]. 西安:西安电子科技大学出版社, 1999.
[9] LIU J S. 科学计算中的蒙特卡罗策略(英文影印版) [M]. 北京:世界图书出版公司北京公司, 2005.

相似文献/References:

[1]方瑞明.集成RS和SVR的电力系统短期负荷预测方法[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2007,28(3):252.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5013.2007.03.008]
　FANG Rui-ming.Short-Term Load Forecasting of Power System with Rough Set and Support Vector Regression[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2007,28(3):252.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5013.2007.03.008]
[2]罗来鹏,范自柱.粗糙集中几种粒结构的代数关系[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2019,40(5):694.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.201812041]
　LUO Laipeng,FAN Zizhu.Algebraic Relation of Several Granular Structures in Rough Sets[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2019,40(3):694.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.201812041]
[3]王志焕,游小英,李伟康,等.模糊广义决策信息系统的证据特征与信任约简[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2020,41(5):683.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202003026]
　WANG Zhihuan,YOU Xiaoying,LI Weikang,et al.Evidence Characteristics and Belief Reduction of Fuzzy Generalized Decision Information System[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2020,41(3):683.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202003026]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
水利部水利生态绩效审计评价基金资助项目(040310)
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-03-23