[1]路甜甜,郭玉川,姚磊,等.耦合MOP-PLUS模型的库车市LUCC趋势与景观生态安全评价[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2024,45(1):47-60.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202310017]
　LU Tiantian,GUO Yuchuan,YAO Lei,et al.LUCC Trend and Landscape Ecological Security Evaluation in Kucha City through Coupled MOP-PLUS Model[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2024,45(1):47-60.[doi:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202310017]
点击复制

耦合MOP-PLUS模型的库车市LUCC趋势与景观生态安全评价()
分享到：

《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1000-5013/CN:35-1079/N]

卷:
第45卷
期数:
2024年第1期
页码:
47-60
栏目:
出版日期:
2024-01-11

文章信息/Info

Title:
LUCC Trend and Landscape Ecological Security Evaluation in Kucha City through Coupled MOP-PLUS Model
文章编号:
1000-5013(2024)01-0047-14
作者:
路甜甜1;  郭玉川1; 2;  姚磊1;  王会静1;  白运保1;  张子惠1
1. 新疆大学 地理与遥感科学学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;2. 新疆大学 新疆绿洲生态重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
Author(s):
LU Tiantian1;  GUO Yuchuan1; 2;  YAO Lei1; WANG Huijing1;  BAI Yunbao1;  ZHANG Zihui1
1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Universiy, Urumqi 830046, China
关键词:
土地利用格局变化;  景观生态安全评价;  PLUS多情景模拟;  库车市
Keywords:
land use pattern change;  landscape ecological security evaluation;  PLUS multi-scenario simulation;  Kucha City
分类号:
X826;Q146
DOI:
10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202310017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
探究干旱区典型绿洲城市景观生态安全时空演变,设置经济、生态、景观生态安全、可持续(MOP)4种情景,预测土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)趋势,评价2030年景观生态安全,以期缓解城市建设开发与生态环境保护的矛盾。基于1990-2020年的土地利用数据,采用遥感、地理信息系统(GIS)网格等方法构建景观生态安全评价模型,以揭示库车市近30 a景观生态安全空间分布特征与变化趋势,并通过耦合MOP-PLUS模型预测库车市2030年景观生态安全时空演变规律。结果表明:1990-2020年,研究区耕地、林地、建设用地面积总体呈增加趋势,草地、水域面积总体呈现减少趋势,地类转换主要集中于耕地、草地与未利用地;景观生态安全值(ESI)空间集聚状态明显,但集聚程度有所下降,景观生态安全等级以中等、较高、高生态安全为主,占研究区总面积60.15%~64.87%;相较于2020年,2030年4种情景下的ESI变化幅度较大,主要集中于南部人口聚集地。
Abstract:
Aiming to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of urban landscape ecological security in typical oasis city in arid areas, four scenarios including economy, ecology, landscape ecological security and sustainability(MOP)were used to predict land use/cover change(LUCC)trend, and to evaluate landscape ecological security in 2030, which could help ease the tension between urban construction and development and ecological environment protection. Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2020, methods such as remote sensing and geographic information system grid were used to construct the landscape ecological security evaluation model in order to demonstrate the landscape ecological security spatial distribution characteristics and change trends in Kucha City over the past 30 years, and to predict spatial and temporal evolution patterns of landscape ecological security in Kucha City in 2030 through coupled MOP-PLUS model. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020,the areas of cultivated land, woodland and construction land in the research areas showed an overall increasing trend, while the areas of grassland and water showed an overall decreasing trend, and land type conversion mainly focused on cultivated land, grassland and unused land. The spatial clustering status of landscape ecological security value(ESI)was obvious, but the degree of clustering decreased, and the landscape ecological security level was dominated by medium, higher and high ESI, which accounted for 60.15%-64.87% of the total area of the study area. Compared to 2020, the changes in ESI under the four scenarios in 2030 were relatively large, mainly concentrated in the southern population gathering areas.

参考文献/References:

[1] 和海秀,周洪华,白如霄.基于土地利用变化的新疆塔城地区碳排放特征分析[J].水土保持通报,2022,42(3):373-380.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.03.046.
[2] 涂雯,吴静雯,马理辉,等.水土保持措施驱动村域土地利用景观格局变化: 以米脂县高西沟村为例[J].水土保持学报,2023,37(3):147-154.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.03.020.
[3] LIANG Xuedong,SI Dongyang,ZHANG Xinli.Regional sustainable development analysis based on information entropy: Sichuan Province as an example[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2017,14(10):1219.DOI:10.3390/ijerph14101219.
[4] ZHANG Ze,HU Baiqing,QIU Haihong.Comprehensive evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity based on SDGs perspective and tthree-dimensional balance model[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,138:108788.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108788.
[5] CUNHA-E-Sá M A,ROSA R,DUARTE C C.Natural carbon capture and storage(NCCS): Forests, land use and carbon accounting[J].Resource and Energy Economics,2013,35(2):148-170.DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122 271.
[6] 袁媛,罗志军,赵杰,等.基于景观结构和空间统计学的南昌市景观生态安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(3):247-255.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2020.03.036.
[7] ZHANG Qiang,WANG Gang,YUAN Ruanyue,et al.Dynamic responses of ecological vulnerability to land cover shifts over the Yellow River Basin, China[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,144:109554.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109554.
[8] 王晓琴,王宏卫,谈波,等.新疆阿克苏地区景观格局与生境质量时空演变及影响机制[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2022,43(6):777-789.DOI:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202203041.
[9] CHEN Ailian,ZHAO Xinfeng,YAO Lei,et al.Application of a new integrated landscape index to predict potential urban heat islands[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,69:828-835.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.05.045.
[10] RENETZEDER C,SCHINDLER S,PETERSEIL J,et al.Can we measure ecological sustainability?Landscape pattern as an indicator for naturalness and land use intensity at regional, national and European level[J].Ecological Indicators,2010,10(1):39-48.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2009.03.017.
[11] MONDAL B,DOLUI G,PRAMANIK M,et al.Urban expansion and wetland shrinkage estimation using a GIS-based model in the East Kolkata Wetland, India[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,83:62-73.DOI:10.1016/j.ecoli nd.2017.07.037.
[12] SICA Y V,QUINTANA R D,RADELOFF V C,et al.Wetland loss due to land use change in the Lower Paraná River Delta, Argentina[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,568:967-978.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.200.
[13] BOIX-FAYOS C,BOERBOOM L G J,JANSSEN R,et al.Mountain ecosystem services affected by land use changes and hydrological control works in Mediterranean catchments[J].Ecosystem Services,2020,44(11):101136.DOI10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101136.
[14] 杨鸿飞,吴建召,胡祉昱,等.基于景观格局分析地震灾区小流域生态安全: 以龙溪河为例[EB/OL].(2023-01-16)[2023-11-23] .
[15] 程植,林孝松.三峡库区大宁河流域景观格局变化及生态安全格局构建研究[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2021,38(3):40-49.DOI:10.11721/cqnuj20212312.
[16] LUO Jieling,FU Hui.Construct the future wetland ecological security pattern with multi-scenario simulation[J].Ecological Indicators,2023,153:110473.DOI10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110473.
[17] 王永庶,唐岱,延相东,等.基于网格尺度的保山市中心城区生态安全评价研究[J].西南林业大学学报(自然科学),2021,41(5):80-87.DOI:10.11929/j.swfu.202007057.
[18] 钱田田,王宏卫,余芳瑞,等.基于DPSIR模型的新疆城市生态韧性评估及影响因素分析[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2023,44(5):607-614.DOI:10.11830/ISSN.1000-5013.202303009.
[19] 谢余初,巩杰,张玲玲.基于PSR模型的白龙江流域景观生态安全时空变化[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):790-797.DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.06.016.
[20] 王欣珂,林弘,谢香群,等.闽江流域土地利用时空变化特征及驱动因子分析[J].生态科学,2023,42(4):171-181.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2023.04.020.
[21] ANIAH P,BAWAKYILLENUO S,CODJOE S N A,et al.Land use and land cover change detection and prediction based on CA-Markov chain in the savannah ecological zone of Ghana[J].Environmental Challenges,2023,10:100664.DOI:10.1016/j.envc.2022.100664.
[22] ZHANG Jun,LIU Zhaoshun,LI Shujie.Research on land use simulation of incorporating historical information into the FLUS model: Setting Songyuan City as an example[J].Sustainability,2022,14(7): 1 -14.DOI:10.3390/su14073828.
[23] CHASIA S,OLANG L O,SITOKI L.Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model[J].Ecological Modelling,2023,476:110256.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110256.
[24] 王新红.库车龟兹小巷之变: 从无人问津到人气满满[N]. 新疆日报(汉),2023-11-12(004).
[25] 麦尔耶姆·亚森,买买提·沙吾提,吐尔逊·艾山,等.新疆渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲耕地时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(18):3506-3518.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2017.18.007.
[26] GAO Linna,MA Yonggang,XU Zhonglin,et al.Multi-scenario simulation and ecological risk analysis of land use based on the PLUS model: A case study of Nanjing[J].Sustainable Cities and Society,2022,85:10405.DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2022.104055.
[27] 何珍珍,王宏卫,杨胜天,等.塔里木盆地中北部绿洲生态安全评价[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(4):963-970.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2018.04.26.
[28] 吴金华,刘思雨,白帅.基于景观生态安全的神木市生态廊道识别与优化[J].干旱区研究,2021,38(4):1120-1127.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.24.
[29] 魏心雨,王雁杰,孙梦媛,等.基于土地利用结构变化的河南省碳排放时空格局及驱动力分析[EB/OL].(2023-01-11)[2023-11-23] .
[30] 乔斌,颜玉倩,张婷华,等.基于土地利用变化的西宁市景观生态风险识别及优化策略[J].生态学杂志,2023,42(8):2020-2031.DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202307.013.
[31] PATRICHE C V,PIRNAU R,GROZAVU A,et al.A comparative analysis of binary logistic regression and analytical hierarchy process for landslide susceptibility assessment in the Dobrov River Basin, Romania[J].Pedosphere,2016,26(3):335-350.DOI:10.1016/S1002-0160(15)60047-9.
[32] 修炀景,侯蒙京,田骄阳,等.基于土地利用/覆盖的甘肃省景观生态风险时空变化特征[J].草业学报,2023,32(1):1-15.DOI:10.11686/cyxb2021298.
[33] 卢远,苏文静,华璀,等.左江上游流域景观生态风险评价[J].热带地理,2010,30(5):496-502.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.001392.
[34] 刘顺鑫,黄云.“三生空间”视角下万州区景观生态安全评价及其耦合特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(6):308-316.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20200718.001.
[35] 袁媛,罗志军,赵杰,等.基于景观结构和空间统计学的南昌市景观生态安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(3):247-255.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2020.03.036.
[36] 王重玲,程淑杰,王林伶,等.基于GIS的宁夏中部干旱带生态安全空间格局的评价[J].西部林业科学,2020,49(2):147-153.DOI:10.16473/j.cnki.xblykx1972.2020.02.021.
[37] 谢名睿,危小建,赵莉,等.南昌市生态用地景观结构与网络连通性多情景模拟[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(2):202-211,309.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.02.024.
[38] ZHAO Yongyu,KASIMU A,HONG Wuliang,et al.Construction and restoration of landscape ecological network in Urumqi City based on landscape ecological risk assessment[J].Sustainability,2022,14:8154.DOI:10.3390/su14138154.
[39] RAN Hong,MA Yonggang,XU Zhonglin.Evaluation and prediction of land use ecological security in the Kashgar Region based on grid GIS[J].Sustainability,2022,15(1):40.DOI:10.3390/ijgi11060328.
[40] WANG Ziyang,SHI Peiji,ZHANG Xuebin,et al.Research on landscape pattern construction and ecological restoration of Jiuquan City based on ecological security evaluation[J].Sustainability,2021,13:5732.DOI:10.3390/su13105732.
[41] 谢高地,张彩霞,张昌顺,等.中国生态系统服务的价值[J].资源科学,2015,37(9):1740-1746.DOI:1007-7588(2015)09-1740-07.
[42] CHEN Xiaodong,YANG Zhaoping,HAN Fang,et al.Landscape ecological risk and ecological security pattern construction in world natural heritage sites: A case study of Bayinbuluke, Xinjiang, China[J].ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information,2022,11(6):328.DOI:10.3390/su15010040.
[43] 康璇,王雪梅,柴仲平.近25 a来渭-库绿洲土地利用/覆被变化及其影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(5):333-339.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.05.003.
[44] 艾克旦·依萨克,满苏尔·沙比提,阿曼妮萨·库尔班,等.阿克苏河流域绿洲生态安全评价及影响因子分析[J].环境科学与技术,2020,43(7):217-223.DOI:10.19672/j.cnki.1003-6504.2020.07.029.
[45] WEI Qianian,YAO Lei,TANG Hua,et al.Temporal and spatial variation analysis of habitat quality on the PLUS-InVEST model for Ebinur Lake Basin, China[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,145:109632.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109632.
[46] SHI Mingjie,WU Hongqi,ZHU Lei,et al.Temporal and spatial evolution and prediction of carbon stocks in Yili Valley based on MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models[J].2021,38:1010-1019.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2020.0586.
[47] 王娟,张飞,于海洋,等.基于LUCC的渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲水文及生态特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(2):236-242,359.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2016.02.044.
[48] 刘小雪,蒋志辉.乡村振兴战略背景下库车农民专业合作社发展研究[J].安徽农业科学,2023,51(14):254-258.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0571-6611.2023.14.062.
[49] 朱亚楠.乌鲁木齐市土地利用景观格局变化与生态安全耦合协调研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2022.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2023-10-18
通信作者: 郭玉川(1982-),男,讲师,博士,主要从事水文及水资源方面的教学和科研工作。E-mail:xjguoyuchuan@xju.edu.cn。
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41961003)https://hdxb.hqu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-01-20